UK new car market to break two-million barrier
Cox Automotive is predicting that the UK new car market will grow to more than two million registrations this year.
This would represent a 5.7% year-on-year increase and a significant 29.1% rise from the market low in 2022, but still 9.8% below pre-pandemic averages.
Fleet demand is expected to remain strong and account for 50% of all transactions, with private registrations rising by two per cent this year to make up 47% of new car sales.
Driving the uptick in sales are new entrants to market, such as Chinese brands BYD, Jaecoo, and Omoda, with BYD achieving 631% year-on-year growth to take a 1.68% market share.
Key milestone
Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive Europe, said: “Breaking the two million mark in 2025 would be a key milestone for the UK’s automotive recovery. However, creating effective strategies to manage the changing competitive environment is crucial.
“Effective brand partnerships will be crucial in navigating these changes. UK stakeholders must adapt their sourcing, logistics, and partnerships to reflect Asia’s growing influence. This includes preparing for reduced European supply and accommodating more diverse product standards.”
New entrants
Meanwhile, electric vehicles enjoyed record-breaking registrations in the first quarter of the year, but Cox Automotive still predicts they will fall four per cent below the ZEV Mandate target of 28% of all sales. It predicts the gap between sales and targets to broaden to 16% by 2028, when the ZEV Mandate stipulates that 52% of new car sales must be electric.
Nothard said: “While the UK government has adjusted the ZEV mandate to reduce the financial penalties on manufacturers who don’t meet the targets, these are minor in the greater context of the current pressures on the industry.
“With the industry’s exports under threat due to tariffs, along with complications in the global supply chain and inconsistent consumer demand for EVs, much more needs to be done.”
