Cox Automotive is predicting an 11% fall in new van sales this year and a 0.9% decline in used van registrations.
The figures have been revealed in its first forecasts for the new and used commercial vehicle markets.
It expects new van registrations to reach 320,380 in 2025, driven partly by a growing demand for electric vehicles. Year-to-date electric van registrations are up 55% (15,954) to account for 8.8% of the market, although this is barely more than half of the 16% stipulated by the ZEV Mandate.
Meanwhile, used vans transactions are predicted to reach 999,678 units, which is nearly one per cent down on last year but 11.9% up on pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Supply and demand
Matthew Davock, director of commercial vehicles at Manheim UK, said: “Higher mileage vehicles continue to present a challenge for valuations due to extended fleet replacement cycles and a greater variation in condition.
“Similarly, the imbalance between supply and demand for some segments, particularly in the small van and 4×4 pickup segments, may continue to impact values in the coming months. Currently, the forecast residual values in the used van market have been revised down by an average of 1.5% compared with the previous month, reflecting typical seasonal trends and economic uncertainty.”
He continued: “The used electric van market is a mixed picture. Demand for these vehicles is increasing, and we are seeing an increase in volumes across our sites, but adoption remains below the government’s mandated market share as buyer confidence remains challenged.
“Concerns such as carry capacity and range anxiety continue to hinder further adoption. The values of these vehicles are expected to remain volatile due to limited transaction data, buyer hesitancy and higher running costs.”
