IHS predicts ‘record-breaking’ 2016

Passenger car and LCV registrations in the UK are expected to break records during 2016, according to IHS Automotive.

It found that both grew in the traditionally weak month of and anticipates a record-breaking year during 2016, before the market cools over the next couple of years at least.

IHS Automotive currently expects that the LCV market will grow by more than 6.5% y/y to around 405,000 units in 2016 – a new record for the market. However, it sees it falling by 13.0% y/y during 2017 to 353,000 units, before dipping a further 0.5% y/y the following year.

Due to the number plate change month of September, many customers hold off registering vehicles in August to gain the perceived advantage of having a newer vehicle. Also, following Brexit, astute buyers may consider factors such as the weaker pound leading to price rises in their purchase decisions.

IHS Automotive adjusted its expectations for passenger car registrations following the Brexit vote. While it still anticipates a 1.1% y/y increase during 2016 to 2.66 million units, it says this is likely to be dependent on the extent of the success in September. It also expects a steeper downturn than originally anticipated for 2017, with a fall of 9.2% y/y to 2.42 million units, while in 2018 it sees demand hitting around 2.37 million units.