Motorcycle market trends September 2015

According to figures provided by the MCIA, registrations of powered two-wheelers (p-t-w) currently sit at 72,238 machines as of the end of July which is an increase of 13.1% over this period last year. However, if compared with July in isolation to June, it is clear that registrations are slowing with volumes reducing across all sectors with the exception of a modest increase in Mopeds. Although Moped registrations rallied in July, total volumes sold still sit 11.4% behind last year.

Sector Jul-15 Jul-14 % YTD 2015 YTD 2014 %
Scooter 2,275 2,111 +7.8 13,590 12,713 +6.9
Trail/Enduro 476 418 +13.9 3,319 2,952 +12.4
Naked 3,100 2,439 +27.1 19,723 15,082 +30.8
Sport/Tour 407 392 +3.8 2,619 2,765 -5.3
Supersport 1,360 1,155 +17.7 8,916 8,023 +11.1
Touring 206 186 +10.8 1,797 2,114 -15.0
Custom 1,000 899 +11.2 5,889 5,307 +11.0
Adventure Sport 1,513 1,175 +28.8 11,011 8,904 +23.7
Unspecified 17 24 -29.2 109 76 +43.4
Total Motorcycles 10,354 8,799 +17.7 66,973 57,936 +15.6
M/C excluding Scooters 8,079 6,688 +20.8 53,383 45,223 +18.0
Total Mopeds 919 1,087 -15.5 5,265 5,944 -11.4
Total Two Wheelers 11,273 9,886 +14.0 72,238 63,880 +13.1

An easing in retail order take and retraction in registration volumes is not unexpected to progress through the summer holiday period, with finances being stretched thin and attention elsewhere. Registration volumes are also likely to have eased throughout August, with customers preferring to wait for the new plate this month before taking delivery. However, the relentless pace of demand that many have experienced this year is likely to continue for some time yet before dealers can again catch a breath and take stock of what appears to have been a good year.

The scooter sector, step-through machines 51cc and above, continue to grow in demand and now sit 7.8% ahead of last year comparing July only and 6.9% YTD, bringing the total number of machines to 13,590 this year.

Geared motorcycles in July, excluding scooters, continued the surge that was seen in June. An increase of 20.1% over the same month last year to 8,079 machines is significant but it was almost 1900 units behind the volumes seen in June, although at 53,383 machines it still represents y-t-d growth of 18%. Although the touring sector showed an increase over July last year, it still shows a retraction in performance YTD, down 15.0% but, as has been touched on previously, this shortfall has been more than covered by purchases of alternative styles of machine such as adventure sport, which saw growth of 23.7% y-t-d or an increase of over 2100 machines.

ENGINE BAND July 2015 July 2014 % Change July 2015 YTD July 2014 YTD % Change
0-50cc 926 1,090 -15.0 5,322 5,978 -11.0
51-125cc 4,660 3,815 +22.1 25,539 22,241 +14.8
126-650cc 1,431 1,339 +6.9 10,392 8,922 +16.5
651-1000cc 2,447 1,907 +28.3 17,238 13,646 +26.3
Over 1000cc 1,809 1,735 +4.3 13,747 13,093 +5.0
TOTAL REGISTRATIONS 11,273 9,886 +14.0 72,238 63,880 +13.1

TOP SELLING MODELS

  Model YTD Registrations
1 Honda PCX 125 1,331
2 Yamaha MT-09 TRACER 1,108
3 Yamaha MT-07 ABS 1,025
4 BMW R 1200 GS 997
5 Yamaha MT 125 940
6 Honda CBF 125 M 882
7 Honda NSC 110 WH 872
8 Honda CBR 125 R 821
9 BMW R 1200 GS ADVENTURE 757
10 Ducati SCRAMBLER 737

New Sales

Feedback from subscribers who have kindly responded to our most recent survey suggests that demand for new machines is up on this time last year. 75% of respondents held this view whilst 25% reported that demand was level. This feedback is validated by the MCIA registration data above. Discount levels are reported as being level in the main, although 25% of respondents disagreed and reported an increase. Finance penetration appears to have remained consistent.

Respondents were split on current stockholding of new machines, with 50% reporting that they were at the same level as last year and 50% reporting that they were down. Business confidence appears positive and, whilst respondents all agree that sales volumes are unlikely to increase from where they are now, few believe that volumes are set to fall away substantially. All respondents believe that profitability will remain level.

Used Sales

The majority of respondents have reported that demand for used machines remains level, although 25% have indicated that demand has increased. We had no feedback to indicate that stocks of used machines are up, with the majority reporting that volumes are down on this period last year and that they did not feel that they had enough machines in stock.

Buyers are still actively visible on the auction circuit and, with the exception of the vast numbers of non-runners that are pushed through the ring, conversion rates appear steady. Hammer prices have started to come under pressure of late falling behind Guide trade values in the main. Provisional sales, where a machine does not reach its reserve price, remain prevalent, with bids often well behind Guide values leading to more difficult post sale negotiations.